The Rising Tide -
Cause, Effects and Planning
for Rising Sea Level
 Government
Responses to Sea Level Rise
Even with the minimum relative sea level rise of two feet,
we are already seeing some reactions.
The Environmental
Protection Agency (EPA) will be
issuing community level maps later in 2007 that will
show specific areas threatened by sea level rise. These maps
have been under development for a few years and use existing
elevation data; unfortunately data that is outdated and largely
inadequate for evaluating relative sea level rise in low-lying
areas.
The Federal Emergency Management Administration is
modernizing its 100-year flood maps and will issue them as
they are completed. (See FEMA
web page )
The 100-year flood zone controls the conditions that local
governments put upon development in these zones, often requiring
additional flood protection such as raising a structure above
the flood zone.
As with the EPA community level maps, the FEMA maps are limited
by outdated data or elevation data that is on a ten-foot contour.
A ten-foot contour does not allow precise delineation of areas
subject to inundation or for precise estimates of subsidence
in flat, coastal areas – that work requires one-foot
contours. In low-lying areas, precise elevation data is essential.
Maryland and other coastal states are re mapping their coastal
areas using modern mapping methods (Light Detection and Ranging
- LIDAR )
to assess sea level rise and subsidence. Virginia has no current
plans for re mapping the state.
(See National Academy of Sciences report
on the FEMA program,
esp pages 4 and 5 of summary where adequacy of data discussion
is summarized.)
Together these actions will make the cost of living and doing
business more expensive behind the “blue line” of
inundation risk. This “blue lining” of coastal
Virginia is not an arbitrary decision or an unexpected event.
It is a fact-based set of decisions that reflect sober judgment
about the future risk in these communities from flooding and
sea level rise. It should be a wake up call to all of us that
sea level rise is real and we need to start working on it today.
Virginia’s Lack of Action
Virginia is largely unprepared for the
work ahead. The state promised, in signing the Chesapeake
Bay 2000 Agreement,
to
“Evaluate the potential impact
of climate change on the Chesapeake Bay watershed, particularly
with respect to its wetlands, and consider potential management
options.”
In a related portion of the Agreement,
Virginia promised to:
“Provide information and assistance
to local governments and community groups for the development
and implementation of wetlands preservation plans as a
component of a locally based integrated watershed management
plan. Establish a goal of implementing the wetlands plan
component in 25 percent of the land area of each state’s
Bay watershed by 2010. The plans would preserve key wetlands
while addressing surrounding land use so as to preserve
wetland functions.”
If acted upon, these provisions together would
begin preparing Virginia’s coastal communities to address
sea level rise and the impacts on coastal ecosystems.
But wishing is not reality in Virginia, where
nothing is being done to look at the impacts of climate change
and there is no discernable effort to develop locally-based
wetlands preservation and management plans.
And, Virginia’s inaction stands out along the Atlantic
Coast.
For both Maryland and North Carolina, these sea rise assessments
have produced estimates of current rates of loss of tidal wetlands
due to sea level rise and resulting inundation and erosion.
Maryland estimates that it is losing 260 acres of tidal wetlands
a year through sea level rise. North Carolina made a rough
estimate of 780 acres a year from sea level rise. Virginia
has yet to make such an estimate, but it will probably be in
the range of Maryland’s estimates. Needless to say, these
wetlands losses are not figured into any Virginia program for “no
net loss” of wetlands nor are any computations of how
many acres of wetlands are needed to meet tributary strategy
goals.
Beyond these assessments and strategies, Maryland has begun
a cooperative
program with FEMA to map its coastal areas.
This Map Modernization program will cost approximately $10
million in federal, state, and local funding and will result
in LiDAR mapping of coastal communities and the development
of models to be used for future analysis of flooding and sea
level rise. North Carolina has a similar effort underway.
The only significant activity in Virginia on this topic at
present is the Hampton Roads component of the Consortium for
Atlantic Regional Assessment (CARA) – see http://ccrm.vims.edu/cara_web/studentinfo.htm Sea
Level rise is not listed as a priority in a document search
through the natural resources agencies and departments in Virginia’s
government. The only state approved document in which sea level
rise was identified as a problem was in the report of the Greenhouse
Gas Working Group of the State Advisory Board on Air Pollution
- http://www.deq.virginia.gov/air/sab/GHGreport.doc
Local Government’s Role
Without an effort at the state level, local governments and
the citizens of coastal communities are left on their own to
cope with rising waters, vanishing insurance companies, and
loss of significant environmental services represented by wetlands
and adjacent shoreline buffers. As every study on sea level
rise has pointed out, the only realistic solution is to move
critical structures and settlements away from the coast in
the coming years. This is a local land use issue, but it must
be informed by state level inundation data, ecological resource
mapping, and other programmatic and financial support.
For local governments, the issue is a difficult one since
it falls upon them to take the action needed to preserve “escape
routes” behind existing wetlands or to find areas elsewhere
that will replace the environmental services lost through wetlands
inundation. As stated above, the required first steps would
be identification of those areas at risk from inundation and
an analysis of the environmental services and functions provided
by those ecosystems.
The next steps involve generating the political will and public
support for local government policies that set aside critical
environmental areas from development. The decades-away consequences
of inundation puts any significant protections at risk from
being labeled a “takings” and thus requiring payment
to the landowner. The elimination of development in coastal
areas can affect the property tax base of the locality, especially
in Virginia where property taxes are the single most significant
source of income for local government.
There are some zoning tools that might allow localities to
create special zoning ordinances to set aside coastal areas
from development. State law allows zoning to protect water
quality, for example. Likewise, there are provisions for special
overlay districts and the precedent set by the local zoning
authorities to implement the Chesapeake Bay Preservation Act.
Some coastal states have instituted “rolling easements” ( http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/effects/coastal/SLRTakings.html )
that allow development but prevent the landowner from putting
flood protection measures in place in the face of rising sea
level. How these zoning authorities would be applied to a decades-distant
impact or received by the public is unknown.
The reality of the “blue lining” of coastal communities
will be a major driver in getting the attention of local governments
along the Chesapeake Bay and its tributaries. At the minimum,
the “blue lining” will create an incentive for
local governments, planning districts, and other entities to
begin discussions on the coming shoreline changes.
Private/Non-Profit Role
To properly address sea level rise, the private landowner
and the nonprofit sectors must be involved as well. It is estimated
that eighty-five percent of the Chesapeake Bay shoreline is
privately owned and involving those landowners is essential.
They are the ones who will be living and working behind the “blue
line” and they need the information and tools to adapt
to the problem.
Available information must be conveyed to these shoreline
landowners to better inform their land use and planning decisions.
In some states, this process is already underway (http://epa.gov/climatechange/effects/coastal/saving_NJ.pdf )
In the non-profit sector, land trusts need to be involved
in sea level rise discussions. First, land trusts hold land
title and easements in perpetuity and need to know where land
is at risk from inundation. Such information may guide their
decisions to take additional land under title or easements.
In addition, land trusts can play a key role in protecting
upland areas that may be needed for the retreat of coastal
ecosystems in coming decades. They can also begin to protect
areas providing environmental functions that will be threatened
as sea level rises. Strategic partnerships between state and
local government agencies and private land trusts can enhance
a response to sea level rise
However these strategic efforts will not work without accurate
information on inundation potential and environmental services
provided by at-risk coastal area again pointing to the need
for state government leadership.
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